The moon theory says Rockstar hides the date of its next GTA 6 reveal in the moon phase shown in its promo images. It seemed to work for Trailer 1's announcement in 2023, but its 2024 prediction of Trailer 2 news on November 22 failed; Trailer 2 arrived on May 6, 2025.
The 2024 version started on November 1, 2024, when Rockstar posted a GTA Online community update with a screenshot of a car under a waning gibbous moon. Reddit user tnasstyy pointed out the phase the same day, and r/GTA6 settled on November 22 as the next matching date. Kotaku covered it four days before.
The first version, in 2023, came from a Reddit user whose account has since been deleted, so we credit the 2024 post that restarted it.
Nothing happened on November 22. The theory came back in December 2024 alongside the "27 theory", pointing at December 20 and then January 19, and missed again. Trailer 2 finally dropped on May 6, 2025, a date nobody's moon chart predicted.
Evidence for
- In 2023, fans matched a waning gibbous moon in a GTA Online promo image to the December 1 date when Rockstar announced Trailer 1's release date. (GTA 6 Fans Think The Moon Is Telling Them When The Next Trailer Will Arrive (Kotaku), Nov 18, 2024)
- GTA BOOM traces the theory to a Reddit user (now deleted) who linked the September 2023 moon image to the December 1, 2023 announcement. (GTA 6 Moon Theory (GTA BOOM), Jan 3, 2025)
Evidence against
- November 22, 2024, the next waning gibbous after Rockstar's November 1 promo image, passed with no Trailer 2 news. (Surprise Surprise, Grand Theft Auto 6's Moon Theory Wasn't Correct (TheGamer), Nov 22, 2024)
- The theory resurfaced on December 20, 2024, with January 19, 2025 named as the next date to watch; no trailer came on either day. (GTA 6 fans are convinced that a new trailer is going to release on December 27, because the moon and a license plate told them so (PC Gamer), Dec 23, 2024)
- Rockstar released Trailer 2 on its YouTube channel on May 6, 2025. (Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 (Rockstar Games, YouTube), May 6, 2025)
Theory by u/tnasstyy on r/GTA6.
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